What the BTS Score is

One number, 0 to 100, for every MLB and minor-league player: what his next five years are worth to a dynasty team, priced against everyone else in the pool.

How it's built

The score comes from a projection path, not a stat line. For each player we estimate the skills that actually carry year to year (strikeout rate, walk rate, power, speed; for pitchers strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed), translated from his level to the majors, shrunk toward what a player like him usually is until the sample earns trust, and aged one skill at a time. From that we walk five seasons forward as one path: how likely he is to be a regular, a bench piece, hurt, in the minors, or out of the game each year, and what he produces when he plays. We draw thousands of such careers.

Then we price them. Each season is scored in standard 5x5 categories against the pool, discounted a little per year out, and summarized as a certainty equivalent: a fragile path costs, a real upside tail pays. Positions that are thin get a small premium. Finally the whole pool is laid on a 0–100 line where 100 is the best asset in this run and 0 the worst. It is a value distance, not a rank: two stars a hair apart score alike; a star and a replacement player do not.

What the bands mean

• 95–100 Top of the pool.
• 80–95 Cornerstone: a star with a real floor, or an elite prospect whose upside is priced.
• 60–80 Building block: regulars and near-regular prospects.
• 40–60 Playable: upside benches, risky arms, older regulars.
• 20–40 Fringe.
• 0–20 Replacement or worse.

How we check it

Before the score becomes the default sort anywhere on the site, it has to beat Marcel, the simplest projection that works (weight the last three years, regress to the mean, age), on a rolling backtest: project a past season from only what was known on its opening day, then compare with what happened, in every sample-size bucket, for hitters and pitchers. Until it does, the score is labeled beta and the tables sort the old way. The current result is published below.

What it won't do

It won't predict a broken hamate, a new pitch added in March, or a platoon decided in July. The preseason number is the prior; the season is the update. Scores are comparable inside one run, not across years. 100 is not a perfect player; it's the most valuable asset in this vintage.

Built on the APEX projection path (component projection, five-year walk, dynasty value index). Coefficients start from published projection research and are refit on our own backtests.